How the Midterm Elections Could Impact the Future of Abortion Rights

If you’ve heard it once, you’ve heard it a thousand times, right? Abortion is on the ballot this midterm election season. If you’re feeling a little cynical about this, it’s hard to blame you. I, too, get a panicked fundraising email from Nancy Pelosi at least once a day. But the truth is that the 2022 midterms really are make-or-break for abortion rights in states all over the country.

So, let’s put Pelosi and the rest of the Congressional Democrats on mute for a second and break it down.

In Congress

As long as the Supreme Court remains as stacked in the anti-choice column as it is now, the only way to reinstate the right to an abortion in all 50 states is through Congress; and to do that, we need the Senate. You may remember that the Democrats actually passed a bill in the House of Representatives—The Women’s Health Protection Act—that would guarantee the right to an abortion, but it failed in the Senate because Democrats didn’t have the 60 votes to pass the filibuster and didn’t have the majority needed to overrule the filibuster to pass this bill.

Passing legislation would be a big deal, but it’s not the only thing Congress can do to protect abortion rights. A pro-choice majority in the House and Senate might also be able to finally pass the Equal Rights Amendment, which would guarantee equal protection under the Constitution regardless of sex. Technically, the deadline for ratification of the ERA has passed, but what if the Senate just voted to extend the deadline? With equal protection under the Constitution, it becomes that much harder to argue against the right to an abortion for everyone who chooses one.

The good news is that, according to FiveThirtyEight and the Cook Political Report, among other polling aggregators and analysts, Democrats have a better than fighting chance to not just maintain control of the Senate, but to actually increase their majority. And a big part of that is very likely the Dobbs decision. It turns out, losing the right to an abortion is actually is a very energizing issue for voters everywhere.

Governor’s races

But that’s just national politics. Since the fall of Roe, there are some states where the legal right to an abortion literally hinges on a single election. Per Vox, Democratic governors Laura Kelly in Kansas and Tom Wolf in Pennsylvania have been those states’ last remaining defense protecting abortion rights—and both face tough challenges from Republican candidates. Kelly is up for reelection this year, and Wolf will be replaced either by Democrat Josh Shapiro or hardline, extremist anti-abortion Republican Doug Mastriano.

Governors’ races are also vitally important—and terrifyingly close—in Michigan and Arizona. Michigan’s Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer has repeatedly vetoed the Republican legislature’s efforts to enforce the state’s trigger ban and other abortion restrictions. If Republican challenger Tudor Dixon wins the race for governor, abortion rights might be in danger. In Arizona, Democrat Katie Hobbs is challenging incumbent Doug Ducey for governor. Hobbs has vowed to block further restrictions on abortion, but if Ducey and downballot Republicans win in the upcoming midterms, the right to abortion could all but disappear in the state.

State legislatures

State legislatures often get short shrift in national news because they’re small and local, and there are just too many of them for national outlets to name each important one by name. But which party controls the state legislature is vitally important to which laws get passed in each state. Even if you have a Democratic governor, there’s only so much they can do to advance their agenda if the state legislature is controlled by Republicans. In particular, state attorney general races are vitally important when it comes to protecting abortion rights in individual states.

Ballot measures

In many states this midterm election cycle, abortion is on the ballot in a literal sense. According to Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), a nonprofit organization focusing on national health issues, Kentucky will vote on an amendment to the state constitution to declare that there is no constitutional right to abortion in that state. Meanwhile, Michigan, California, and Vermont are all voting on state constitutional amendments that would expand or solidify abortion rights.